THE LENS · PAY PER MILE
Price the miles.
Then price their shape.
Evidence for when vehicle-years hide meaningful differences in how far, where and when people drive.
Vehicle-year is useful—but coarse.
Mileage improves the exposure denominator. For high-intensity books, time, road, purpose and occupancy determine the risk carried by each mile.
Assess an insurance bookWHAT CHANGED · 19 SEP 2026MOT Evidence Lab published with a matched 12-month cohort
Measured dispersion: 1,268,479 anonymised vehicles link across December 2024 and December 2025.
Persistence: vehicle-class and propulsion ordering is shown independently in both snapshots.
Boundary: station postcode is not keeper location, so unsupported rural/city segmentation remains suppressed.
01 · PRICING THESIS
The exposure equation should match how losses emerge.
Pay per mile improves the denominator. Context improves the rate.Theft, fire, weather, administration, assistance and capital do not disappear while a vehicle is parked.
Distance converts a vehicle-year into observable road exposure and rewards genuine low use.
Road class, time, purpose, passengers, vehicle and territory alter the risk carried by each mile.
Interpretation boundary. STATS19 is road-safety evidence, not insurer claims experience. Aggregate comparisons can support segmentation tests; they do not establish causality.
02 · USAGE OVER TIME
Is the mileage difference persistent?
Choose a propulsion to compare annual estimates. England, 2023–2025.ANNUAL MILEAGE
2025 · miles per carAll fuels
Observed · DfT NTS0901. The 2025 collection mode changed; results remain survey estimates. “Suppressed” means the sample was too small for a reliable published value.
03 · MOT EVIDENCE LAB
How wide—and repeatable—is vehicle use?
Official DVSA anonymised MOT results. December 2024–December 2025; latest normal test per vehicle.ACTUAL INTERVAL MILEAGE
A vehicle-year conceals a wide exposure range.
P101,748Median5,981P9013,803
7.9×
separates the 90th and 10th percentiles. Charging each vehicle for the same year of exposure ignores most of this observable variation.
Derived from odometer change, annualised for test intervals of 300–430 days. Normal tests only; latest test per vehicle; 100–100,000 plausible annual miles retained.
AUDIT TRAILCoverage, filters and interpretation limits
- Observation window
- December 2024 and December 2025 monthly DVSA result extracts.
- Snapshot coverage
- 2,193,827 unique normal-test vehicles in 2024; 2,247,442 in 2025.
- Matched cohort
- 1,268,479 vehicles with 300–430 days between tests and increasing odometer.
- Validity rules
- Latest normal test per vehicle; annualised mileage between 100 and 100,000 miles.
- Geography
- Great Britain tests. Station postcode area is not used as policyholder location.
- Interpretation
- December cohort evidence, not a full-calendar-year national estimate or insurer claim outcome.
04 · RISK SHAPE
A mile is not a constant unit of risk.
Switch between when, where and the persistent location-severity pattern.RELATIVE COLLISION-TO-FLOW INDEX
When people drive · persistence
Time band202320242025Finding
Fri/Sat social · 19:00–24:001.57×27.7% KSI1.57×29.4% KSI1.58×29.2% KSIPersistent high exposure
Overnight · 00:00–06:001.67×30.8% KSI1.58×30.1% KSI1.53×32.1% KSIPersistent high exposure
Weekday peaks1.00×21.5% KSI1.01×22% KSI1.02×23.9% KSIStable around average
Weekday daytime0.88×22.9% KSI0.88×23.6% KSI0.90×25.2% KSIPersistent below average
Weekend daytime0.86×25.2% KSI0.86×26.8% KSI0.85×27.9% KSIPersistent below average
Collision share ÷ traffic-flow share, calculated independently for each year. Indicative exposure signal; not an insurance claim rate.
05 · GLOBAL PRODUCT WATCH
Track success—not just availability.
Evidence grades separate an operating product from disclosed commercial outcomes.6 products shown
United Kingdom · VERIFIED 19 SEP 2026By MilesRun-off · no new/renewalTrue per mile
- Pricing basis
- Base premium + pence per mile
- Mileage capture
- Plug-in tracker or connected car
- Commercial economics
- Almost one billion miles covered since launch in 2017; profitability not disclosed
- Outcome evidence
- Portfolio in run-off · no new or renewal quotes
Primary company disclosure · evidence verified 19 September 2026. New-customer quotes stopped 26 November 2025 and renewal quotes stopped 6 January 2026. Existing policies remain valid and serviced until their individual expiry dates.
Open primary sourceUnited States · VERIFIED 19 SEP 2026Nationwide SmartMilesTradingTrue per mile
- Pricing basis
- Base premium + variable mileage charge
- Mileage capture
- Telematics device or connected vehicle
- Commercial economics
- Not publicly disclosed
- Outcome evidence
- Current operation verified
Operating evidence · evidence verified 19 September 2026. Live in eligible states; 250-mile daily cap
Open primary sourceUnited States · VERIFIED 19 SEP 2026Allstate MilewiseTradingTrue per mile
- Pricing basis
- Daily rate + per-mile rate
- Mileage capture
- Telematics device
- Commercial economics
- Not separately disclosed
- Outcome evidence
- Current operation verified
Operating evidence · evidence verified 19 September 2026. Live support and mileage-rating documentation
Open primary sourceCanada · VERIFIED 19 SEP 2026CAA MyPaceTradingKilometre blocks
- Pricing basis
- Base cover + 1,000 km blocks
- Mileage capture
- Telematics device
- Commercial economics
- Not publicly disclosed
- Outcome evidence
- Multi-province availability
Operating evidence · evidence verified 19 September 2026. Available in Ontario and three Atlantic provinces
Open primary sourceAustralia · VERIFIED 19 SEP 2026Real Pay As You DriveTradingMileage band
- Pricing basis
- Declared kilometre band
- Mileage capture
- Odometer declaration
- Commercial economics
- Not publicly disclosed
- Outcome evidence
- Current operation verified
Operating evidence · evidence verified 19 September 2026. Odometer range with top-up mechanism
Open primary sourceUnited States · VERIFIED 19 SEP 2026MetromileAcquired · 2022True per mile
- Pricing basis
- Historic true per-mile model
- Mileage capture
- Telematics device
- Commercial economics
- In-force premium disclosed at acquisition
- Outcome evidence
- Acquired and integrated
Commercial disclosure · evidence verified 19 September 2026. >$110m in-force premium disclosed when Lemonade closed acquisition
Open primary sourceEvidence scale
One dot: availability only. Two: current operation or geographic longevity. Three: disclosed commercial scale or outcome. No score implies profitability.
06 · COMMERCIAL EVIDENCE
Does exposure-based pricing work in commercial motor?
Direct per-mile proof is distinguished from time-based and telematics-adjusted products. Verified 19 September 2026.HDVI prices eligible trucking fleets per mile, then uses telematics to refine and manage the risk.
Zego demonstrates scaled demand for variable cover, but charges by working minute rather than distance.
Telematics-adjusted private-hire cover operates at scale; passenger, time and place remain essential.
Product / bookPricing mechanismCommercial scalePublished outcomeEvidence
Evidence boundary. Product operation and adoption are observable. Published savings and safety results are provider-reported; audited loss ratios, combined ratios and profitability by pricing mechanism are generally not disclosed.
07 · BOOK FIT EXPLORER
Where does per-mile pricing earn its complexity?
Theoretical pricing fit and observed market proof are assessed separately. Updated 19 September 2026.THEORETICAL PRICING FIT
Very high fitTaxi / PHV
Base + mile, time, road and occupancy signals
Distance dispersion WideContext dispersion Very highObserved proof Moderate market proof
Large mileage dispersion and passenger-rich, time-sensitive exposure.
- Observed commercial evidence
- Telematics adoption proven at scale; pure per-mile outcome evidence remains limited.
- Minimum viable data
- Verified mileage, operating hours, road mix and passenger proxy
- Pricing caution
- Licensing and platform data can change driver behaviour and selection.
08 · EVIDENCE & GOVERNANCE
Every number should reveal its denominator.
Observed, derived and indicative evidence remain visibly separate.DerivedMOT matched-cohort interval mileageDecember 2024–December 2025
Great Britain
- Numerator
- Odometer increase annualised to 365.25 days
- Denominator
- 1,268,479 vehicles matched across monthly extracts
Limitation: December cohort only. Test interval restricted to 300–430 days and plausible annual mileage to 100–100,000 miles.
DerivedMOT segment persistenceDecember 2024 and December 2025
Great Britain
- Numerator
- Median lifetime annualised odometer mileage by class or fuel
- Denominator
- 2,179,376 valid vehicles in Dec 2024; 2,232,911 in Dec 2025
Limitation: Lifetime annualised mileage is a repeatability check. Broad MOT classes cannot isolate taxi, small van or people-carrier use without further classification.
ObservedAnnual car mileage by fuel2023–2025
England
- Numerator
- Estimated annual miles
- Denominator
- Cars in NTS sample
Limitation: Survey estimate. Battery-electric results before 2024 were suppressed for sample quality.
DerivedCollision-to-flow time index2023–2025
Great Britain
- Numerator
- Share of injury collisions in time band
- Denominator
- Share of DfT traffic-flow index
Limitation: Relative exposure signal; not an insurer claim rate or a direct per-mile estimate.
DerivedRoad-class involvement rate2023–2025
Great Britain
- Numerator
- Vehicles in police-reported injury collisions
- Denominator
- Billion vehicle miles by vehicle and road class
Limitation: Road-safety involvement measure; does not include damage-only claims.
DerivedUrban / rural KSI share2023–2025
Great Britain
- Numerator
- Fatal or serious injury collisions
- Denominator
- All police-reported injury collisions
Limitation: Collision location, not policyholder residence; reporting and severity methodology apply.
Comparable
Hold definitions, cohorts and denominators steady or disclose the break.
Credible
Require sufficient exposure and suppress unstable or low-quality cells.
Persistent
Look for the same directional pattern across years—not one unusual period.
Actionable
Change the Lens only when evidence can alter rating, product or portfolio action.
DVSAAnonymised MOT test and result data2005–2025 files availableVehicle-level odometer, fuel, class, make/model and test-station postcode areaAnnualDepartment for TransportRoad safety open data · STATS192023–2025 usedPolice-reported injury collisions, vehicles, casualties and circumstancesAnnual / provisionalDepartment for TransportRoad traffic estimates · TRA2023–2025 usedVehicle miles by road class and traffic distribution by time and dayAnnualDepartment for TransportNTS vehicle mileage and occupancy2023–2025 usedMileage by fuel type and occupancy by journey purposeAnnual
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